Dear Mikhail,

Thanks for the information and sharing it!
Do you have a guess on the time the activity could theoritically increase? Would it be like an outburst, or more, like in 2013, a general increase of the eta-Aquarids activity level?
And do you know if M. Sato made some equivalent modelization, just like he did for the 2013 eta-Aquarids activity enhancement (ZHR ~ 120 instead of 60-80)?
Thanks in advance!

Clear skies,
Karl

Dear Mikhail, Thanks for the information and sharing it! Do you have a guess on the time the activity could theoritically increase? Would it be like an outburst, or more, like in 2013, a general increase of the eta-Aquarids activity level? And do you know if M. Sato made some equivalent modelization, just like he did for the 2013 eta-Aquarids activity enhancement (ZHR ~ 120 instead of 60-80)? Thanks in advance! Clear skies, Karl

Dear Karl,

Consideng that trails are very old, I suggest this should be an a very long lasting enhancement, for many hours, maybe for a day, centering at 14-18 UT on May 4.

Unfortunalely, I do not know, if M. Sato has any results on eta-Aquarids 2017, thouth it would be interesting to compare, what his model show for this year.

Dear Karl, Consideng that trails are very old, I suggest this should be an a very long lasting enhancement, for many hours, maybe for a day, centering at 14-18 UT on May 4. Unfortunalely, I do not know, if M. Sato has any results on eta-Aquarids 2017, thouth it would be interesting to compare, what his model show for this year.
edited Jan 8 at 2:44 pm

Dear Mikhail,

Thanks for your answer!
Let's wait for the eta-Aquariids, then!
I will try to contact M. Sato and see if he conducted any work on 2017 eta-Aquarrids, and what are his results.

And for sure, Ben, 2013 eta-Aquariids were a pretty nice show, even from Northern hemisphere observing sites, where the radiant position is absolutely not favorable (very low all night, and only raising at the end of the night).

Best wishes,
Karl

Dear Mikhail, Thanks for your answer! Let's wait for the eta-Aquariids, then! I will try to contact M. Sato and see if he conducted any work on 2017 eta-Aquarrids, and what are his results. And for sure, Ben, 2013 eta-Aquariids were a pretty nice show, even from Northern hemisphere observing sites, where the radiant position is absolutely not favorable (very low all night, and only raising at the end of the night). Best wishes, Karl

The 2013 event was amazing! I saw it from 50° northern lat. with many earth-grazing meteors in the morning of May 6.
We"ll see for this year (if weather permits).
Thanks for the new predictions, Mr Maslov!

The 2013 event was amazing! I saw it from 50° northern lat. with many earth-grazing meteors in the morning of May 6. We"ll see for this year (if weather permits). Thanks for the new predictions, Mr Maslov!

Dear Mikhail, Michel, Ben and all,

I managed to contact Mikiya Sato by e-mail, and asked him about his calculations and predictions for the 2017 eta-Aquariids prospects, and he quickly and kindly gave me some information I am allowed to forward here.
According to his models, there may be some slight activity enhancement of the 2017 ETA associated to the -615 dust trail (from 1P/Halley). He announced it last month to the intern seminar of the University he is working in. But the -615 dust trail is the only trail that will be crossed (there were numerous in 2013), and it will be located slightly farther than the 2013 ones, so activity enhancement should not be as high as 4 years ago.
As the dust trail is located futrther out, peak time is difficult to precisely forecast, but his models seems to indicate that the maximum associated to the -615 dust trail should occur on may 5th, between 3h and 12h UT.

Here it is!
Let's go out and have a look at what happened at the beginning of May 2017, now!

Clear skies!
Karl

Dear Mikhail, Michel, Ben and all, I managed to contact Mikiya Sato by e-mail, and asked him about his calculations and predictions for the 2017 eta-Aquariids prospects, and he quickly and kindly gave me some information I am allowed to forward here. According to his models, there may be some slight activity enhancement of the 2017 ETA associated to the -615 dust trail (from 1P/Halley). He announced it last month to the intern seminar of the University he is working in. But the -615 dust trail is the only trail that will be crossed (there were numerous in 2013), and it will be located slightly farther than the 2013 ones, so activity enhancement should not be as high as 4 years ago. As the dust trail is located futrther out, peak time is difficult to precisely forecast, but his models seems to indicate that the maximum associated to the -615 dust trail should occur on may 5th, between 3h and 12h UT. Here it is! Let's go out and have a look at what happened at the beginning of May 2017, now! Clear skies! Karl
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