Dear meteor observers,

I just realized, while reading the 2017 IMO Meteor Shower Calendar, that Mikhail Maslov made some predictions about a potential meteoric activity linked to 249P/LINEAR, with potential activity on April 20th, 2017, around 16h 33min UT. Meteoric activity would be associated to small meteoroids, so meteors may be faint, or only radio detectable.
Does anyone (Mikhail, or anyone else) have any further information about that?
I remember that some activity predictions have ever been made with 209P/LINEAR (in May 2014) and 252P/LINEAR (in March 2016), but no real activity was observed, from what I remember. Do we have to expect the same from 249P/LINEAR associated activity? Or is this comet currently much more active than the two previously cited ones?
What is this activity linked to? Shall we come clmose to one of the comet dust trails? Which, in perticuliar? Do we have a guess on the expected ZHR (if any)?

Thanks in advance for yous answers!
Clear skies!
Karl

Dear meteor observers, I just realized, while reading the 2017 IMO Meteor Shower Calendar, that Mikhail Maslov made some predictions about a potential meteoric activity linked to 249P/LINEAR, with potential activity on April 20th, 2017, around 16h 33min UT. Meteoric activity would be associated to small meteoroids, so meteors may be faint, or only radio detectable. Does anyone (Mikhail, or anyone else) have any further information about that? I remember that some activity predictions have ever been made with 209P/LINEAR (in May 2014) and 252P/LINEAR (in March 2016), but no real activity was observed, from what I remember. Do we have to expect the same from 249P/LINEAR associated activity? Or is this comet currently much more active than the two previously cited ones? What is this activity linked to? Shall we come clmose to one of the comet dust trails? Which, in perticuliar? Do we have a guess on the expected ZHR (if any)? Thanks in advance for yous answers! Clear skies! Karl
edited Jan 23 at 2:54 pm

I reply to myself, but it could of help for others, so...
I just found Mikhail Maslov pages on the topic: http://feraj.ru/Radiants/Predictions/249p-ids2017eng.html
The dust trail would be the one released in 1983, which we were to potentially cross last November (http://feraj.ru/Radiants/Predictions/249p-ids2016eng.html), and which did not produce significant activity at the time.
So as conditions are worse for this encounter with the dust trail (lower densities in meteoroids and higher ejection velocities), it seems unlikely it produces any activity, except maybe in radio.
If someone (Mikhail or anybody) can confirm this (or not), or add elements that could help in understanding this potential event, I would warmly welcome them!

Thanks in advance!
Clear skies!
Karl

I reply to myself, but it could of help for others, so... I just found Mikhail Maslov pages on the topic: http://feraj.ru/Radiants/Predictions/249p-ids2017eng.html The dust trail would be the one released in 1983, which we were to potentially cross last November (http://feraj.ru/Radiants/Predictions/249p-ids2016eng.html), and which did not produce significant activity at the time. So as conditions are worse for this encounter with the dust trail (lower densities in meteoroids and higher ejection velocities), it seems unlikely it produces any activity, except maybe in radio. If someone (Mikhail or anybody) can confirm this (or not), or add elements that could help in understanding this potential event, I would warmly welcome them! Thanks in advance! Clear skies! Karl

Dear Karl and everyone,

Yes, this case with crossing 1983 trail of the comet 249P/LINEAR is unfavorable by many parameters, including very low activity of the comet itself, as well as high ejection velocity, relatively large missing distance and quite low trail density. This makes chances of any detectable activity appearance very low.
However, I suggest that information even on such highly doubtful cases should be made public, in order the observers could check them, say as a part of regular meteor observations, or, like in case with the comet 249P/LINEAR, combining with observations of the Lyrids activity.

By the way, the shower of the comet 209P/LINEAR actually produced a small but very distinct activity in May 2014 with ZHR of 10-20 smile

Dear Karl and everyone, Yes, this case with crossing 1983 trail of the comet 249P/LINEAR is unfavorable by many parameters, including very low activity of the comet itself, as well as high ejection velocity, relatively large missing distance and quite low trail density. This makes chances of any detectable activity appearance very low. However, I suggest that information even on such highly doubtful cases should be made public, in order the observers could check them, say as a part of regular meteor observations, or, like in case with the comet 249P/LINEAR, combining with observations of the Lyrids activity. By the way, the shower of the comet 209P/LINEAR actually produced a small but very distinct activity in May 2014 with ZHR of 10-20 :)
edited Jan 24 at 10:19 am

Dear Mikhail and all,

Thanks for your answer!
I staerted warning people in chronicles to be published in a few weeks and months here in france, warning them that they may not see/detect anything, but that we had to observe to be 100% sure!

And thanks for clarifying for the 209Pids in May 2014. I must admit I must have overlooked the data, and did not remember this observing results. Are there been any publications on the topic after the events? I would be really interested in!

Clear skies!
Karl

Dear Mikhail and all, Thanks for your answer! I staerted warning people in chronicles to be published in a few weeks and months here in france, warning them that they may not see/detect anything, but that we had to observe to be 100% sure! And thanks for clarifying for the 209Pids in May 2014. I must admit I must have overlooked the data, and did not remember this observing results. Are there been any publications on the topic after the events? I would be really interested in! Clear skies! Karl
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